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Run the contract out and then refuse to sign a new contract with the government after that. Flood the civilian market with commercial ammunition. Make ammo cheap again!
Something tells me that a) operating Lake City allows Winchester to offload a lot of expenses on the taxpayer and b) why would Winchester want cheaper ammo prices after the contract runs out vs. higher prices now?

No ammo maker wants cheaper prices and unless we have a total economic collapse (distinct possibility!) prices are never reverting to pre-pandemic levels.
 

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Supply and demand. If they stop selling to the government there will be more on the civilian market, which would probably make the premium less for us commercial buyers. They would still be selling the same amount of ammunition that is produced, we just wouldn’t being paying as much for it if there was an abundance. At least thats my thoughts on it. Or they can be total dorks and charge more…who knows?
I think you don't understand how 'operating Lake City' works and what that really means in terms of production costs, obligations and customers.
 

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From Wikipedia:
Lake City Army Ammunition Plant (LCAAP) is a 3,935-acre (15.92 km2) U.S. government-owned, contractor-operated facility in northeastern Independence, Missouri, that was established by Remington Arms in 1941 to manufacture and test small caliber ammunition for the U.S. Army. The facility has remained in continuous operation except for one 5-year period following World War II.[1][2] As of July 2007, the plant produced nearly 1.4 billion rounds of ammunition per year.[3] In addition, Lake City performs small caliber ammunition stockpile reliability testing and has ammunition and weapon testing responsibilities as the NATO National and Regional Test Center. LCAAP is the single largest producer of small arms ammunition for the United States Armed Forces.[3][4]

Remington Arms operated the plant from its inception until 1985, when operations were taken over by the Olin Corporation.[2] (Winchester) From April 2001, it was operated by Alliant Techsystems (ATK) (Federal), later known as Orbital ATK after a 2015 merger between Orbital Sciences Corporation and parts of Alliant Techsystems. Orbital ATK was acquired by Northrop Grumman in 2018[5] and is now known as Northrop Grumman Innovation Systems. Starting in October 2020, Winchester Ammunition was selected by the US Army to operate and manage the Lake City Plant.
[6]

So....Remington from 1941-1985
Winchester from 1985-2001
Federal from 2001-2020
Winchester 2020-2027, option to extend to 2030.

I think it probable that planned overruns to sell commercially are part of the business model - use the LC facilities and equipment instead of your own. I also think there is an unacknowledged agreement to rotate amongst these major domestic ammunition manufacturers. Now that ATK / Vista Outdoors owns Remington and Federal, my guess is they will take over whenever the current Winchester contract ends.
 
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