M14 Forum banner

1 - 20 of 137 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
7,035 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
I ask the members to weigh in based on whatever opinion, info, fact, conjecture, anything; when do we see a return to normalcy, in freedom to travel, go out without masks, stop the SD etc. Those criteria may not all be met at the same time of course.

I ask because I have an overseas trip scheduled for early September and since its impossible at this point to nail down an end date, I am looking for members guess's.

My thinking, based only on what I see and my own opinion is that I probably wont be able to make that Sept trip. Thoughts?

TIA
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
11,100 Posts
I don't see this going on much longer. Maybe another 2 weeks. Ventilators will eventually catch up with demand and with the distribution of chloroquine and remdizivir as effective treatments to fight the virus, I think we'll be able to open America back up to what it should be.

Unless you live in a hotspot for the virus (New York, Washington, New Jersey), I don't see why the rest of America should go on like this.

Tony.
 

·
Forum Jester
Joined
·
6,980 Posts
hey,we know it's an inconvenience ,but it's harder to shoot your toys if your dead
 

·
Eye Master
Joined
·
3,831 Posts
Several possibilities: if we develop a vaccine or treatment that makes this less deadly will obviously have a huge impact.

If we do NOT, then social distancing will not stop it, it will just delay. The shutdown we are having is slowing it a lot, though we don't know how much yet, because we started lockdown less than 10 days ago, so it will take time for that benefit to go through the system. Basically, for herd immunity to develop, pretty much everyone has to get it, which means 1% will die. However if everyone gets sick at once so we don't have ventilators or hospitals, then 3% will die. So we have to let people get infected, but at a slower rate, till everyone gets it. People will start tooling up to build ventilators, but we won't make enough of them before this thing blows through, such that ventilator demand will drop about the time when new production is coming on-line.

We do not have the resources to keep people at home for months, so they will start relaxing at some point, however since it takes 10 days for a change to pass through the system, they have to relax a small step, then wait 10 days to see what effect that had on infection rates before relaxing another step, or tightening it back up somewhat.

My bet is that we have this thing for he next 9 months in one form or other, at least till we understand it more, or we get a vaccine.

I'm actually intrigued by the ethics question of vaccines. One of the reasons they take so long is that you first test on healthy people to make sure the vaccine does not harm them, that takes a while both because you have to wait something, 30 days?, to see if it hurt them. Then, you try it on really sick people who were going to die anyhow and see if they die less slowly, or you try it on a larger group of healthy people and turn them loose and a few months later, you measure what percent got sick ... it is a slow process.

What happens if we take people and just say, here's the vaccine, and 10 days later we are going to intentionally infect you and see if you die? Sucks to be one of that test group, but if we get the answer sooner, we save a lot more people than who died in that test group.

We do this in war: the 8th Air Force sent B-17s on raids over Germany, knowing that 10% of the crews would die, but if we didn't do it, Germany would win the war, and a lot more Americans would die. In civilian world, we don't have a way to make those decisions, even though they would benefit society as a whole.

Lets round up all the kids who were on Spring Break, and use them.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
1,065 Posts
I would prefer to be wrong, but My guess is 4 to 6 months to start getting back to somewhat Normal life.
My finances would be much happier with a month, but I don't see that happening. If the powers that be, are actually being somewhat honest with us for a change(insert tablespoon of salt), then we are still on a big upswing.

Let's assume that the apparent upswing is driven by the fact that we are just now testing and establishing a baseline for where we really are. We still have to watch/test until we can actually detect a reduction in numbers, then we could believe that it was finally slowing.

I think we'll watch it grow for another month or two and then hopefully, start to stall and then reduce.
 

·
Forum Jester
Joined
·
6,980 Posts
hope she sings on key at least
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
3,676 Posts
It will all depend where you live , The big populated coastal states are being hit the hardest due to the concentration of people, New York is at its peek that will last 2 to 3 weeks then the virus will cycle down for example, but the rest of the country the virus hasnt peaked, here in Maricopa and Pinal Country of Arizona we arent expected to peak untill the end of April, My call volume when the state of emergency was announced, our call volume dropped 50 percent for about a week, then the panic started we were responding to fevers and coughs 3 times a hour, we finally were told by the Dept of health Services not to transport patients that dont meet the criteria. The last 2 weeks I would enstimate 1 out of every 4 "sick person" calls are high probability of covid, I think here we will peak in 2 weeks then 3 weeks for the virus to die down I dont see normal untill june 1st
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
6,876 Posts
Here in podunk Kentucky where nothing bad really happens, they are building a 2000 bed field hospital. Do they know something we don't?

My guess, which is about equal to the rest here, we got two more solid months, maybe more.

Truth is no one knows(barring a vaccine) with any real certainty when this will end.

Just do what your being asked to do, no congregating, wash your hands and keep your powder dry!

RENGI2
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,257 Posts
My thinking, based only on what I see and my own opinion is that I probably wont be able to make that Sept trip. Thoughts?
My opinion, since you asked? I think that travel in July-Sept will probably be happening if the virus is in fact sensitive to temperature, which I think it why Dr. Fauci indicated that it might be seasonal:

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/491239-fauci-says-its-likely-coronavirus-will-be-seasonal

Fauci says it's likely coronavirus will be seasonal
BY JUSTINE COLEMAN - 04/05/20 01:08 PM EDT

...but the problem for the last 2 months (Feb-March) and probably next two months or so (April-May) is a total lack of national 'drive-through' testing capacity of symptomatic and esp. asymptomatic people to understand where the infection outbreaks are occurring - and most importantly as a consequence - an inability to conduct 'contact tracing' for the positive cases in an effort to enforce a two-week quarantine of possibly infected individuals - and thus stop the spread. This is why the infection curve in South Korea, Singapore and Germany looks very different (lower) from the curve in Spain, Italy and soon to be the US (much higher curve). Agree or disagree, my opinion is that our country dropped the ball and wasn't able to do any level of wide-spread testing for the past 3 months, hence no ability to contain it outside of massive nationwide social distancing attempts, which is unfortunately causing concurrent massive economic damage...

Its a catch 22, if we 'open up the economy' too soon in the moderate temps - but without large-scale testing of the major metro areas, we risk a huge outbreak of infections. It appears that the peak from this initial wave will occur in April-May 2020 re infection outbreaks. I expect by Memorial Day /June 1st policies to open up in the economy will be in place, but we could conceivably have 15 to 20% unemployment by that point and a lot of business bankruptcies. Hopefully not, but its a possibility for a period of time.

What I think Dr. Fauci noted recently is that the country will be much more prepared for the next outbreak with respect to testing capability. I think he expects the second wave to be when it gets cold again, so that would be the October 2020 thru March 2021 time period. (I say that based on what happened during the 1918-1919 pandemic, which exhibited to two massive waves of inflections based somewhat on ambient temperature).

My guess is a vaccine might (hopefully) become available in early 2021 if all things go right, but that is just a guess. The USA should have much more testing capability by the autumn of 2020, but I think we'll all need to have a "mail-in ballot" for the general Election, lest we create a massive risk of infection via crowded polling stations in the cooler weather that we typically have in early November.

Again, this assumes the virus might be temperature sensitive and infections slow dramatically during periods of high ambient temperatures and high levels of UV radiation (ie, summer months, June - August and into Sept in our country). I had some travel scheduled for this month that was canceled and postponed until August 2020, so I too hope we have a window of safe travel in late summer...time will tell.

My 2cts as a non-epidemiologist.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,386 Posts
Just for historical comparison, the Flu pandemic a hundred years ago came in three waves, starting in 1918 and returning well into 1919.
We know a lot more about these things today than our grandparents and great grandparents knew back then.
It's going to be bad, but it's not the Great Depression, or WW2.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
161 Posts
Mid to end of July if it follows a bell curve. Still may be too late for me. My employer may not make it. I'm too old to get rehired, especially in a time of 20% or more unemployment. My retirement funds are toast so I can't draw on them to fill the gap. And if the vaccine does come to fruition we'll have another shut down next year albeit not as long. But heck, I'm an optimist.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
4,256 Posts
I don't see this going on much longer. Maybe another 2 weeks. Ventilators will eventually catch up with demand and with the distribution of chloroquine and remdizivir as effective treatments to fight the virus, I think we'll be able to open America back up to what it should be.

Unless you live in a hotspot for the virus (New York, Washington, New Jersey), I don't see why the rest of America should go on like this.

Tony.
Ventilators appear to be a false hope.

Once put on a ventilator the survival rate drops to 20%
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
759 Posts
My opinion, since you asked? I think that travel in July-Sept will probably be possible if the virus is in fact sensitive to temperature, which I think it why Dr. Fauci indicated that it might be seasonal:

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/491239-fauci-says-its-likely-coronavirus-will-be-seasonal

Fauci says it's likely coronavirus will be seasonal
BY JUSTINE COLEMAN - 04/05/20 01:08 PM EDT

...but the problem for the last 2 months (Feb-March) and probably next two months or so (April-May) is a total lack of national 'drive-through' testing capacity of symptomatic and esp. asymptomatic people to understand where the infection outbreaks are occurring - and most importantly as a consequence - an inability to conduct 'contact tracing' for the positive cases in an effort to stop the spread. This is why the infection curve in South Korea, Singapore and Germany looks very different (lower) from the curve in Spain, Italy and soon to be the US (much higher curve). Agree or disagree, my opinion is that our country dropped the ball and wasn't able to do any level of wide-spread testing for the past 3 months, hence no ability to contain it outside of massive nationwide social distancing attempts, which is unfortunately causing concurrent massive economic damage...

Its a catch 22, if we 'open up the economy' but without large-scale testing of the major metro areas, we risk a huge outbreak of infections. It appears that the peak will occur in Apri-May 2020 re infections from the initial wave. I expect by Memorial Day /June 1st things will start to open up in the economy, but we'll could have 15 to 20% unemployment by that point and a lot of business bankruptcies.

What I think Dr. Fauci noted recently is that the country will be much more prepared for the next outbreak with respect to testing capability. I think he expects the second wave to be when it gets cold again, so that would be the October 2020 thru March 2021 time period. (I say that based on what happened during the 1918-1919 pandemic, which exhibited to two massive waves of inflections based somewhat on ambient temperature).

My guess is a vaccine might (hopefully) become available in early 2021 if all things go right, but that is just a guess. The USA should have much more testing capability by the autumn of 2020, but I think we'll all need to have a "mail-in ballot" for the general Election, lest we create a massive risk of infection via crowded polling stations in the cooler weather that we typically have in early November.

Again, this assumes the virus might be temperature sensitive and infections slow dramatically during periods of high ambient temperatures and high levels of UV radiation (ie, summer months, June - August and into Sept in our country). I had some travel scheduled for this month that was canceled and postponed until August 2020, so I too hope we have a window of safe travel in late summer...time will tell.

My 2cts as a non-epidemiologist.
The virus does not give a damn about temperature. The reason some epidemics are seasonal and correlate with outside temp is because in the winter folks spend more time inside in close quarters and the probability of transmission is higher than in the summer when folks spend more time outside, further apart from each other.

It is all about the probabilities: how many others does a single sick person infect: If you lower that probability, the epidemic slows down. That is why I think the administration made a huge mistake not mandating mask use immediately. Mask lower the probability.
 
1 - 20 of 137 Posts
Top