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I had the opportunity to drive a neighbors Tesla a few days ago and it is truly an impressive vehicle. Acceleration is amazing to say the least. It will glue you to the seat. Almost everything is controlled with a large touch screen...no gauges, no dials, no switches and no noise. And the car will drive itself to a certain degree. The first scheduled maintenance is 2 years away per the owner. Updates to the system occur at night and in his opinion he has a better vehicle than when it was purchased.

I would say that society is coming to the end of the use of fossil fuels to power most transportation based on what I experienced with the Tesla. In 20, 30 or 40 years from now, the ratio of gasoline/diesel to electric vehicles will likely have flipped. There will be exceptions of course. I don't believe naval/merchant marine vessels or commercial/military aircraft will run on battery power in 20 years but in general terms as far as cars and trucks...we are witnessing the beginning of the end of gasoline and diesel.
 

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While I think the electric vehicles have their place, they still need to be charged and most electricity is supplied by Coal Fired Power Plants. Hydro Electric generation is much cleaner, but the Tree Huggers won't let more dams be built or added onto. And in Washington State the indians want ALL of the dams removed.

Case in point, there either 8 or 9 dams on the Columbia and Snake river that generate power. ALL of them were designed to be built in 3 stages, each stage adding more Power Generation. However due to the Tree Huggers and the indians none of the dams have ever had the 2nd stage built.

So WHERE IS THE ELECTRICITY COMING FROM TO POWER THESE CARS?
 

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I got a Model 3 last Christmas and I'm a very happy customer. My brother-in-law visited at Thanksgiving, and I let him drive it around this weekend, and even a Harley-riding guy like him who loves big motors, couldn't get enough of the Tesla "experience." I don't expect much maintenance except tires, brakes, and windshield wipers and wiper fluid. Drivetrain should be maintenance-free.

I would say that society is coming to the end of the use of fossil fuels to power most transportation based on what I experienced with the Tesla. In 20, 30 or 40 years from now, the ratio of gasoline/diesel to electric vehicles will likely have flipped. There will be exceptions of course. I don't believe naval/merchant marine vessels or commercial/military aircraft will run on battery power in 20 years but in general terms as far as cars and trucks...we are witnessing the beginning of the end of gasoline and diesel.
I'm afraid that ~ 95% of global transportation is still reliant on fossil fuels, and while I hope you are right about the timelines for the proliferation of EV (electric vehicle) cars and trucks, I am not as optimistic, unfortunately.

So WHERE IS THE ELECTRICITY COMING FROM TO POWER THESE CARS?
Electricity is not an energy source per se - its a carrier of energy - and it can be produced in a variety of ways, both renewable and non-renewable. Fossil fuels are exactly that - fossilized carbon molecules that came from organic material that the Earth cooked for tens of millions of years - that we have been extracting for 150 years in the case of crude oil, but its a finite resource that is not in any way renewable. Most of it was formed twice in geological history million years ago due to extreme climate change, as oceans receded and organic material got covered with sediment - and that began the slow cooking process via enormous geological pressure that heated and cooked the organic material...

So the the proper question is thus "So where is the fossil fuel-based crude oil coming from to power all these cars in the 2020s-2040s given its a finite resource?" (fyi: Global peak oil discovery occurred in the mid-1960s, so that is a real-world problem).

There is a quiet debate within the oil industry about what will happen first - peak oil demand - or peak oil production? They are not the same - especially if substitute modes of non-fossil fuel-based ground-based transportation systems are not available in sufficient quantity to keep the global economy churning at the expected rates of economic growth. Indeed, I remember what $150 per barrel of oil did to the global economy in 2008 - when the industry was concerned about peak oil production and a lack of suitable alternatives for road-based transportation. Here's a subtle warning of sorts.

Oil demand to peak in three years, says energy adviser DNV GL (Sept 2019)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-demand-dnv-gl-idUSKCN1VV2UQ

...it would be better to have more EVs globally to mitigate the economic disruptions that would otherwise occur with a demand imbalance... So I hope the original poster is right about the future. The days of cheap oil are in fact numbered...whether that's 3 years away or 23 years away is unknown, but this appears to be a subject of real debate, esp for those who view this as a serious national security/global security issue for our generation.

My apologizes for the digression. I realize this subject makes people uncomfortable with bouts of cognitive dissonance when they begin to understand the various implications. My point is that I agree with the original post. Modern Electric vehicles (EVs), be it a Tesla or others, is probably a good ideal whose time has come....
 

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So .. here's a question for the Tesla owners.


What do you do when the battery reaches the end of it's useful life? After all, we all know how batteries have a reputation of failing at the most inopportune time.

I have a hard time believing that Elon Musk has developed a 15 year / No Memory battery that will enable everyone to keep driving these cars 20 years after purchase.

The closest I want to get to a True Hybrid or Electric vehicle right now is the BMW 530i class of vehicles. If the battery fails in these models, it's only a $1500 replacement. I'd hate to guess what the Tesla would cost.
 

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If that’s you thing, more power to ya.
I’ll keep my Internal Combustion engine.
 

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To each there own of course.

What do you do when the battery reaches the end of its useful life?
Here's the reported answer to the question re battery replacement cost. (Note: in a Tesla it’s a bunch of battery modules - not a single battery as found in standard cars):

https://interestingengineering.com/tesla-puts-price-on-model-3-battery-module-replacement-around-5000-7000

With the rise of electric cars the question the cost of replacement batteries has occupied many experts and owner forums. In a tweet last week Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, indicated the cost of replacing battery modules in the companies Model 3 will cost about $3000 - $7000 USD.

Not a bad price considering the current batteries are designed to last 300,000 to 500,000 miles, which is the equivalent of 1,500 cycles. Its key to note that the car has been designed so that only the battery modules, not the whole pack needs to be replaced.
...I don't plan on keeping my Model 3 past 150k miles (about 12 years in my case at ~12k miles per year), so I don't anticipate ever replacing the battery...

I’m not sure what a new motor (and possibly a transmission) cost for today’s high performance sedans at 300k to 500k miles, but new battery modules are probably equivalent or cheaper. In addition, Total cost of ownership will be much less at 300,000 miles due to lack of maintenance required on a electric motor vs an internal combustion engine (that requires period maintenance and misc disposable parts).

Again, to each his own regarding personal transportation. As the original poster noted - just don’t drive your neighbor’s Tesla if you have an open mind, as the performance and freedom from gasoline - can be sort of addicting...
 

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I was looking forward to the truck option to consider, but it is ugly as sin. Tesla cars are a lot of fun to drive and I'd love not having to fill up on gas every week
 

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The Model 3 battery is only warrantied for 120,000 miles. Even though the early article says it should last for 300,000-500,000 miles. "Expected" replacement cost $3,000-$7,000... I don't believe that, especially when the commies get in power and the EPA figures how terrible those batteries are for the "environment."

The Government subsidizing electric cars hides some of the actual cost. And corn, they subsidize that too. Then in many places, forces it to be in our gasoline. Less efficient and it seems few look into how much fossil fuel went to growing corn and turning it into alcohol.

Every electronic device I've every owned crapped out. Mostly much sooner than expected/promised. The more "computerized" the more problems.

I can see the Tesla (cars) being much like computers and iPhones. If you want to be productive, you have to get a new one about every three to five years. If it looks like they get all figured out in about twenty years, I might consider an electric car. But by then I'll likely be pushing up daisies.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
What is the range before recharging for all that money?
The one I drove is around 250 to 300 miles per the owner. There are currently 12,000 charging stations world wide and somewhere around 6 per week are being added per Tesla. According to my neighbor, he took an approximate 300 mile trip for about $10.00 of electricity. Like many people, once the tank gets low, you stop for fuel.

A friend in California who has a Tesla told me the local electric company gives him a break because he purchased an electric vehicle. He is using about 40% more electricity charging the car but his bill has gone below what he was paying prior to getting the Tesla. To him, he's fueling it for free..
 

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I know that many states have a gasoline tax to fund road construction, maintenance, etc. For electric vehicles they will probably add a annual personal vehicle tax to make up for the gas they are not using.
 

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I wonder how much of an update to emergency crews like the fire dept is needed for when the batteries bust in a collision, or worse put out the fire. Also wonder how much said training/supplies cost, and who's gonna pay for it?
 
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